04-15-2025, 11:10 PM
Bitcoin death cross still present despite rally to $86K — Should BTC traders be af
<p style="float:right; margin:0 0 10px 15px; width:240px;"><img src="https://images.cointelegraph.com/images/840_aHR0cHM6Ly9zMy5jb2ludGVsZWdyYXBoLmNvbS91cGxvYWRzLzIwMjQtMTIvMDE5NDE2YWQtNTRmOC03NTA3LWE0NzktNGVjNDgxZjUxMDZm.jpg"></p><p><p style="float:right; margin:0 0 10px 15px; width:240px;"><img src="https://images.cointelegraph.com/images/840_aHR0cHM6Ly9zMy5jb2ludGVsZWdyYXBoLmNvbS91cGxvYWRzLzIwMjQtMTIvMDE5NDE2YWQtNTRmOC03NTA3LWE0NzktNGVjNDgxZjUxMDZm.jpg" alt="Bitcoin death cross still present despite rally to $86K — Should BTC traders be afraid?"></p><p>On April 6, Bitcoin price formed a death cross on a daily chart — a technical pattern where the 50-day moving average (MA) falls below the 200-day MA. Historically associated with trend reversals and long bearish trading periods, this ominous signal has sometimes preceded major market drawdowns.<p>The latest death cross comes amid growing macroeconomic uncertainty. Equities are reeling from what appears to be the early stages of a tariff war, volatility is rising, and fear continues to dominate investor sentiment. For some investors, Bitcoin’s death cross could be the final blow to hopes of a near-term rally. Early signs of <a data-ct-non-breakable="null" href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/black-monday-2-0-5-things-bitcoin-this-week" rel="null" target="null" text="null" title="null">capitulation</a> from short-term holders may already be emerging.</p><p>Still, not everyone sees doom ahead.</p><h2>Bitcoin death crosses history</h2><p>By definition, a death cross confirms the end of a bullish phase. When the 50-day MA drops below the 200-day MA, it suggests recent price action has weakened relative to the longer-term trend. Its counterpart, the golden cross, occurs when the opposite happens — often heralding a new rally.</p><p>Since its inception, Bitcoin has experienced 10 such death crosses, with the 11th unfolding right now. Analyzing their dates and durations gives a major insight: every bear market included a death cross, but not every death cross has led to a bear market. This distinction is key to understanding the current setup.</p><figure><img alt="Bitcoin death cross still present despite rally to $86K — Should BTC traders be afraid?" src="https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2025-04/019625dd-87c7-73e4-a886-28b12b39580f" title=""><figcaption style="text-align: center;"><p><em>BTC/USD 1-day death cross history (log). Source: Marie Poteriaieva, TradingView</em></p></figcaption></figure><p>Indeed, there are two types of death crosses: those that happen during bear markets and the rest. The three death crosses that formed during the bear markets of 2014-2015, 2018, and 2022 were long and painful. They lasted for 9 to 13 months and saw drawdowns between 55% and 68% from the day of the cross to the cycle bottom.</p><p>The remaining seven were far less severe. They lasted from 1.5 months to 3.5 months and saw Bitcoin decline anywhere from 27% to nothing at all. In many cases, these signals marked local bottoms and were followed by renewed rallies.</p><p>This brings us to the critical question: Is Bitcoin already in a bear market, or is this another bear trap?</p><h2>A bearish signal?</h2><p>If Bitcoin is indeed in bear territory, as CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju <a data-ct-non-breakable="null" href="https://x.com/ki_young_ju/status/1908537068420304974" rel="null" target="null" text="null" title="null">believes</a>, the current death cross could signal 6 to 12 more months of downward price action. This outlook aligns with his observations of the difference between the current market cap and the realized cap (average cost basis for each wallet x amount of BTC held).</p><blockquote>“If Realized Cap is growing, but Market Cap is stagnant or falling, it means capital is flowing in, but prices aren’t rising—a classic bearish signal.”</blockquote><p>Current data clearly points to the latter, Ki Young Ju adds.</p><blockquote>“Sell pressure could ease anytime, but historically, real reversals take at least six months—so a short-term rally seems unlikely.”</blockquote><figure><img src="https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2025-04/019625de-885f-776a-a281-7e0ca0e9ef6f" title="" alt="Bitcoin death cross still present despite rally to $86K — Should BTC traders be afraid?"><figcaption style="text-align: center;"><p><em>BTC growth rate difference. Source: CryptoQuant</em></p></figcaption></figure><p>Other market participants disregard the presence of the death cross. Crypto analyst Mister Crypto argued that the current death cross is a setup for a rally rather than a slide. “The trap is set again. This will be the most hated rally of 2025!” he <a data-ct-non-breakable="null" href="https://x.com/misterrcrypto/status/1905978499917316592" rel="null" target="null" text="null" title="null">posted</a> alongside a chart showing previous false signals of this cycle.</p><figure><img src="https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2025-04/019625de-f794-7f00-9406-e12397f8202c" title="" alt="Bitcoin death cross still present despite rally to $86K — Should BTC traders be afraid?"><figcaption style="text-align: center;"><p><em>Bitcoin death cross during the bull market. Source: Mister Crypto</em></p></figcaption></figure><p>CoinShares head of research James Butterfill also downplayed the signal’s significance. As he <a data-ct-non-breakable="null" href="https://x.com/jbutterfill/status/1909646024689283146" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" text="null" title="https://x.com/jbutterfill/status/1909646024689283146">put it</a>, </p><blockquote>“For those of you that think the Bitcoin death cross means anything - empirically, it's total nonsense, and in fact, often a good buying opportunity.” </blockquote><p>Butterfill’s data shows that, on average, Bitcoin prices are only slightly lower one month after a death cross (-3.2%) and often higher three months out.</p><p><em><strong>Related: </strong></em><a data-ct-non-breakable="null" href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-odds-outlasting-united-states-dollar-tariffs-crypto-analysts" rel="null" target="null" text="null" title="null"><em><strong>Trump tariffs reignite idea that Bitcoin could outlast US dollar</strong></em></a></p><p>Interestingly, Bitcoin isn’t the only asset flashing warning signs. The Nthanksaq 100 and S&P 500 are both on the verge of forming their own death crosses, while individual tech stocks — including Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, and Alphabet — have already triggered them or are close to doing so. </p><p>Bitcoin’s recent move is part of a larger market reset, for better or for worse. At the moment, however, it leans more toward the "worse" side: as some analysts <a data-ct-non-breakable="null" href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-on-verge-of-largest-price-drawdown-of-the-bull-market-analyst" rel="null" target="null" text="null" title="null">point out</a>, what’s bad for the Nthanksaq tends to be bad for Bitcoin, too. Unless, of course, Bitcoin fully claims its role as <a data-ct-non-breakable="null" href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-s-digital-gold-claim-challenged-as-traders-move-into-bonds-and-gold-hits-new-highs" rel="null" target="null" text="null" title="null">digital gold</a>.</p><p class="post-content__disclaimer" type="">This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.</p><template data-name="subscription_form" data-type="markets_outlook" label="Subscription Form: Markets Outlook"></template></p>
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https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-d...er_inbound
<p style="float:right; margin:0 0 10px 15px; width:240px;"><img src="https://images.cointelegraph.com/images/840_aHR0cHM6Ly9zMy5jb2ludGVsZWdyYXBoLmNvbS91cGxvYWRzLzIwMjQtMTIvMDE5NDE2YWQtNTRmOC03NTA3LWE0NzktNGVjNDgxZjUxMDZm.jpg"></p><p><p style="float:right; margin:0 0 10px 15px; width:240px;"><img src="https://images.cointelegraph.com/images/840_aHR0cHM6Ly9zMy5jb2ludGVsZWdyYXBoLmNvbS91cGxvYWRzLzIwMjQtMTIvMDE5NDE2YWQtNTRmOC03NTA3LWE0NzktNGVjNDgxZjUxMDZm.jpg" alt="Bitcoin death cross still present despite rally to $86K — Should BTC traders be afraid?"></p><p>On April 6, Bitcoin price formed a death cross on a daily chart — a technical pattern where the 50-day moving average (MA) falls below the 200-day MA. Historically associated with trend reversals and long bearish trading periods, this ominous signal has sometimes preceded major market drawdowns.<p>The latest death cross comes amid growing macroeconomic uncertainty. Equities are reeling from what appears to be the early stages of a tariff war, volatility is rising, and fear continues to dominate investor sentiment. For some investors, Bitcoin’s death cross could be the final blow to hopes of a near-term rally. Early signs of <a data-ct-non-breakable="null" href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/black-monday-2-0-5-things-bitcoin-this-week" rel="null" target="null" text="null" title="null">capitulation</a> from short-term holders may already be emerging.</p><p>Still, not everyone sees doom ahead.</p><h2>Bitcoin death crosses history</h2><p>By definition, a death cross confirms the end of a bullish phase. When the 50-day MA drops below the 200-day MA, it suggests recent price action has weakened relative to the longer-term trend. Its counterpart, the golden cross, occurs when the opposite happens — often heralding a new rally.</p><p>Since its inception, Bitcoin has experienced 10 such death crosses, with the 11th unfolding right now. Analyzing their dates and durations gives a major insight: every bear market included a death cross, but not every death cross has led to a bear market. This distinction is key to understanding the current setup.</p><figure><img alt="Bitcoin death cross still present despite rally to $86K — Should BTC traders be afraid?" src="https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2025-04/019625dd-87c7-73e4-a886-28b12b39580f" title=""><figcaption style="text-align: center;"><p><em>BTC/USD 1-day death cross history (log). Source: Marie Poteriaieva, TradingView</em></p></figcaption></figure><p>Indeed, there are two types of death crosses: those that happen during bear markets and the rest. The three death crosses that formed during the bear markets of 2014-2015, 2018, and 2022 were long and painful. They lasted for 9 to 13 months and saw drawdowns between 55% and 68% from the day of the cross to the cycle bottom.</p><p>The remaining seven were far less severe. They lasted from 1.5 months to 3.5 months and saw Bitcoin decline anywhere from 27% to nothing at all. In many cases, these signals marked local bottoms and were followed by renewed rallies.</p><p>This brings us to the critical question: Is Bitcoin already in a bear market, or is this another bear trap?</p><h2>A bearish signal?</h2><p>If Bitcoin is indeed in bear territory, as CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju <a data-ct-non-breakable="null" href="https://x.com/ki_young_ju/status/1908537068420304974" rel="null" target="null" text="null" title="null">believes</a>, the current death cross could signal 6 to 12 more months of downward price action. This outlook aligns with his observations of the difference between the current market cap and the realized cap (average cost basis for each wallet x amount of BTC held).</p><blockquote>“If Realized Cap is growing, but Market Cap is stagnant or falling, it means capital is flowing in, but prices aren’t rising—a classic bearish signal.”</blockquote><p>Current data clearly points to the latter, Ki Young Ju adds.</p><blockquote>“Sell pressure could ease anytime, but historically, real reversals take at least six months—so a short-term rally seems unlikely.”</blockquote><figure><img src="https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2025-04/019625de-885f-776a-a281-7e0ca0e9ef6f" title="" alt="Bitcoin death cross still present despite rally to $86K — Should BTC traders be afraid?"><figcaption style="text-align: center;"><p><em>BTC growth rate difference. Source: CryptoQuant</em></p></figcaption></figure><p>Other market participants disregard the presence of the death cross. Crypto analyst Mister Crypto argued that the current death cross is a setup for a rally rather than a slide. “The trap is set again. This will be the most hated rally of 2025!” he <a data-ct-non-breakable="null" href="https://x.com/misterrcrypto/status/1905978499917316592" rel="null" target="null" text="null" title="null">posted</a> alongside a chart showing previous false signals of this cycle.</p><figure><img src="https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2025-04/019625de-f794-7f00-9406-e12397f8202c" title="" alt="Bitcoin death cross still present despite rally to $86K — Should BTC traders be afraid?"><figcaption style="text-align: center;"><p><em>Bitcoin death cross during the bull market. Source: Mister Crypto</em></p></figcaption></figure><p>CoinShares head of research James Butterfill also downplayed the signal’s significance. As he <a data-ct-non-breakable="null" href="https://x.com/jbutterfill/status/1909646024689283146" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" text="null" title="https://x.com/jbutterfill/status/1909646024689283146">put it</a>, </p><blockquote>“For those of you that think the Bitcoin death cross means anything - empirically, it's total nonsense, and in fact, often a good buying opportunity.” </blockquote><p>Butterfill’s data shows that, on average, Bitcoin prices are only slightly lower one month after a death cross (-3.2%) and often higher three months out.</p><p><em><strong>Related: </strong></em><a data-ct-non-breakable="null" href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-odds-outlasting-united-states-dollar-tariffs-crypto-analysts" rel="null" target="null" text="null" title="null"><em><strong>Trump tariffs reignite idea that Bitcoin could outlast US dollar</strong></em></a></p><p>Interestingly, Bitcoin isn’t the only asset flashing warning signs. The Nthanksaq 100 and S&P 500 are both on the verge of forming their own death crosses, while individual tech stocks — including Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, and Alphabet — have already triggered them or are close to doing so. </p><p>Bitcoin’s recent move is part of a larger market reset, for better or for worse. At the moment, however, it leans more toward the "worse" side: as some analysts <a data-ct-non-breakable="null" href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-on-verge-of-largest-price-drawdown-of-the-bull-market-analyst" rel="null" target="null" text="null" title="null">point out</a>, what’s bad for the Nthanksaq tends to be bad for Bitcoin, too. Unless, of course, Bitcoin fully claims its role as <a data-ct-non-breakable="null" href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-s-digital-gold-claim-challenged-as-traders-move-into-bonds-and-gold-hits-new-highs" rel="null" target="null" text="null" title="null">digital gold</a>.</p><p class="post-content__disclaimer" type="">This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.</p><template data-name="subscription_form" data-type="markets_outlook" label="Subscription Form: Markets Outlook"></template></p>
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https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-d...er_inbound