04-14-2025, 11:40 AM
Trade war vs record M2 money supply: 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week
<p style="float:right; margin:0 0 10px 15px; width:240px;"><img src="https://images.cointelegraph.com/images/840_aHR0cHM6Ly9zMy5jb2ludGVsZWdyYXBoLmNvbS91cGxvYWRzLzIwMjUtMDQvMDE5NjMzNjgtNzQyMy03MTcyLTljOTQtZGMwZTAzZWY4NGRk.jpg"></p><p><p style="float:right; margin:0 0 10px 15px; width:240px;"><img src="https://images.cointelegraph.com/images/840_aHR0cHM6Ly9zMy5jb2ludGVsZWdyYXBoLmNvbS91cGxvYWRzLzIwMjUtMDQvMDE5NjMzNjgtNzQyMy03MTcyLTljOTQtZGMwZTAzZWY4NGRk.jpg" alt="Trade war vs record M2 money supply: 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week"></p><p>Bitcoin (<a data-ct-non-breakable="null" href="https://cointelegraph.com/bitcoin-price" rel="null" target="null" text="null" title="null">BTC</a>) is holding down the fort as the US trade war rages on into the third week of April.<ul><li><p>BTC price action attempts to overcome a long-term resistance trend line without success as trade war concerns dictate traders’ expectations.</p></li><li><p>Tariffs are the key macroeconomic topic of the week as risk assets brace for potential surprise headlines.</p></li><li><p>Bitcoin ETFs lost almost $800 million in a week, while Strategy indicates it has purchased the dip.</p></li><li><p>Despite tariff pressures, the weakness of the US dollar could be a blessing in disguise for Bitcoin and risky assets.</p></li><li><p>Global M2 money supply is at an all-time high and rising; will Bitcoin follow history and replicate its past?</p></li></ul><h2>Bulls battle a key BTC price resistance line</h2><p>With traders on the lookout for tariff-related volatility this week, BTC price analysis is zooming out.</p><p>BTC/USD closed last week up 6.7%, data from <a data-ct-non-breakable="null" href="https://subscription.cointelegraph.com/?_gl=1*7499wx*_ga*MTQ0MzQ0NzI4Ny4xNzE2MzY1NTA0*_ga_53R24TEEB1*MTcxNjM2NTUwNC4xLjEuMTcxNjM2Njg2MC4wLjAuMA.." rel="null" target="null" text="null" title="null">Cointelegraph Markets Pro</a> and <a data-ct-non-breakable="null" href="https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/BTCUSD/?exchange=BITSTAMP" rel="null" target="null" text="null" title="null">TradingView</a> confirms.</p><figure><img alt="Trade war vs record M2 money supply: 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week" src="https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2025-04/0196336f-9edc-7ef7-8ae5-28a05210c303" title=""><figcaption style="text-align: center;"><p><em>BTC/USD 1-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView</em></p></figcaption></figure><p>Next, however, comes the real test, breaking beyond a downward-sloping trend line that has capped the upside for months.</p><blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr"><a href="https://twitter.com/search?q=%24BTC&src=ctag&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">$BTC</a> - <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Bitcoin?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#Bitcoin</a>: I’m watching this chart closely. We might be ready. <a href="https://t.co/Dtv1jkrzkP">pic.twitter.com/Dtv1jkrzkP</a></p>— Crypto Caesar (@CryptoCaesarTA) <a href="https://twitter.com/CryptoCaesarTA/status/1910996051185594845?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">April 12, 2025</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script><p>“Rejected at key resistance, following the trendline perfectly,” trader Bitbull wrote in his latest post on the topic on X. </p><blockquote>“If the breakdown continues, eyes on the $70K-$72K support zone for a possible bounce.”</blockquote><figure><img alt="Trade war vs record M2 money supply: 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week" src="https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2025-04/01963367-7d1a-7cdd-b827-3c84e4a1902c" title=""><figcaption style="text-align: center;"><p><em>BTC/USD 12-hour chart. Source: Bitbull/X</em></p></figcaption></figure><p>Fellow trader and analyst Rekt Capital is also eyeing the trend line as a breakout <a data-ct-non-breakable="null" href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-price-tags-86-k-as-trump-tariff-relief-boosts-breakout-odds" rel="null" target="null" text="null" title="null">proves hard to confirm</a>.</p><p>“Bitcoin has Daily Closed above the Downtrend. Thus, breakout confirmation is underway,” he <a data-ct-non-breakable="null" href="https://x.com/rektcapital/status/1911364496435576921" rel="null" target="null" text="null" title="null">told</a> X followers over the weekend.</p><blockquote>“However BTC has previously Daily Closed above the Downtrend but failed its retest (a few of the red circles). Retest needs to be successful and it is in progress.”</blockquote><figure><img alt="Trade war vs record M2 money supply: 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week" src="https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2025-04/01962f4f-0fc5-7c01-af29-11ac05364843" title=""><figcaption style="text-align: center;"><p><em>BTC/USD 1-day chart. Source: Rekt Capital/X</em></p></figcaption></figure><p>Popular trader AK47 on X posted separate upside and downside BTC price targets, depending on the outcome of the trend line retest.</p><p>“$BTC might push to $88K — but don’t get too comfy,” he <a data-ct-non-breakable="null" href="https://x.com/HolaItsAk47/status/1911397632443888089" rel="null" target="null" text="null" title="null">cautioned</a>.</p><blockquote>“Could be a fakeout, grabbing liquidity before dipping to $81K for that inverse head & shoulders setup. If that plays out, $95K–$100K isn’t far.”</blockquote><figure><img alt="Trade war vs record M2 money supply: 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week" src="https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2025-04/01963368-6d11-7373-8044-cd411b7844a3" title=""><figcaption style="text-align: center;"><p><em>BTC/USDT 4-hour chart. Source: AK47/X</em></p></figcaption></figure><h2>Tariff talk keeps markets on edge</h2><p>A quieter week for US macroeconomic data leaves initial jobless claims as the highlight while the ongoing trade war continues to dominate.</p><p>With China in focus, risk assets and crypto face flash volatility should more surprises involving trade tariffs surface.</p><p>The weekend saw snap relief in that respect as US President Donald Trump announced a pause on tariffs for <a data-ct-non-breakable="null" href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/trump-exempts-select-tech-products-tariffs-crypto-benefit" rel="null" target="null" text="null" title="null">key tech products</a>. As a result, Bitcoin climbed to 11-day highs above $86,000.</p><p><a data-ct-non-breakable="null" href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/commerce-secretary-lutnick-walks-back-tariff-relief-electronics" rel="null" target="null" text="null" title="null">Subsequent indications</a> that the measures would be temporary then put renewed pressure on stocks’ futures, while BTC/USD retreated to circle $84,000 at the time of writing.</p><p>“We think the ‘tariff exemptions’ announced this weekend were originally intended to be temporary,” trading resource The Kobeissi Letter wrote in part of an <a data-ct-non-breakable="null" href="https://x.com/KobeissiLetter/status/1911486088431944047" rel="null" target="null" text="null" title="null">X reaction</a>. </p><blockquote>“The goal was to bring treasury yields back down before resuming the trade war.”</blockquote><figure><img alt="Trade war vs record M2 money supply: 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week" src="https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2025-04/0196336a-11c9-70cf-8347-0592182e39a2" title=""><figcaption style="text-align: center;"><p><em>S&P 500 1-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView</em></p></figcaption></figure><p>Kobeissi suggested that markets had originally considered the move as a signal that the trade war might end completely, only to be disappointed a day later.</p><p>“Bonds will likely still rally along with stocks, but uncertainty has only grown. The bond market is king,” it added.</p><p>Continuing, trading firm Mosaic Asset agreed that bonds may have been crucial in altering policy trajectory last week.</p><p>“It’s the volatility in other areas of the markets like currencies and Treasury bonds that might have forced a quick pivot on trade and tariff policy,” it summarized in the latest edition of its regular newsletter, “<a data-ct-non-breakable="null" href="https://www.mosaicassetco.com/p/the-market-mosaic-41325" rel="null" target="null" text="null" title="null">The Market Mosaic</a>,” on April 13.</p><blockquote>“The uncertainty around tariffs has become a binary and unpredictable event for the stock market. Signs of tensions fuel further downside, while an easing of tensions sends stocks sharply in the other direction.”</blockquote><h2>Bitcoin ETF outflow “barely registers”</h2><p>A sign of how turbulent last week was came in the form of net flows from the US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs).</p><p>In one of the worst weeks ever for the ETF products since their debut in early 2024, total outflows <a data-ct-non-breakable="null" href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/spot-bitcoin-etfs-see-772-m-outflow-as-investors-prepare-for-tariff-driven-inflation" rel="null" target="null" text="null" title="null">passed $750 million</a>.</p><p>For network economist Timothy Peterson, however, there is little to worry about.</p><p>Zooming out, he noted that even a nine-figure drawdown such as this makes hardly any difference to the overall investment pool that the ETFs have created in little more than a year.</p><p>“Last week, US Bitcoin ETFs had their 5th worst week ever (in terms of outflows). Over $700 million. Yet it barely registers as a blip on the chart,” he <a data-ct-non-breakable="null" href="https://x.com/nsquaredvalue/status/1911101099177574879" rel="null" target="null" text="null" title="null">told</a> X followers. </p><blockquote>“That's how big Bitcoin has become. That's how sticky these investments are.”</blockquote><figure><img alt="Trade war vs record M2 money supply: 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week" src="https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2025-04/0196336a-e22f-7775-a192-ba71ba87be6f" title=""><figcaption style="text-align: center;"><p><em>US spot Bitcoin ETF balances. Source: Timothy Peterson/X</em></p></figcaption></figure><p>Among major investors seeking to “<a data-ct-non-breakable="null" href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/saylor-strategy-buying-dip-amid-macroeconomic-turmoil" rel="null" target="null" text="null" title="null">buy the dip</a>,” meanwhile, was business intelligence firm Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy), whose co-founder Michael Saylor hinted that it was upping its BTC exposure this weekend.</p><p>“No Tariffs on Orange Dots,” he <a data-ct-non-breakable="null" href="https://x.com/saylor/status/1911408383808217104" rel="null" target="null" text="null" title="null">wrote</a> in an X post alongside a chart of Strategy’s acquisitions. </p><figure><img alt="Trade war vs record M2 money supply: 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week" src="https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2025-04/0196336b-7800-7cef-bec5-6b6ebc2be2b9" title=""><figcaption style="text-align: center;"><p><em>Strategy Bitcoin holdings data. Source: Michael Saylor</em></p></figcaption></figure><p>Whether Bitcoin will emerge as an attractive proposition for the institutional investor cohort while trade war uncertainty continues is dubious.</p><p>A survey by Bank of America in late March showed that respondents overwhelmingly favored gold as a volatility hedge, with 58% choosing it.</p><p>“This compares to just 9% for 30-year Treasury Bonds and 3% for Bitcoin,” Kobeissi wrote while <a data-ct-non-breakable="null" href="https://x.com/KobeissiLetter/status/1906132766313603223" rel="null" target="null" text="null" title="null">reporting</a> on the findings. </p><blockquote>“Throw in the US deficit spending crisis and gold quickly becomes the only global safe haven asset.”</blockquote><figure><img alt="Trade war vs record M2 money supply: 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week" src="https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2025-04/0196336c-00da-7ade-ba00-717185b64ccf" title=""><figcaption style="text-align: center;"><p><em>BoA survey results. Source: The Kobeissi Letter/X</em></p></figcaption></figure><h2>Dollar dive gives risk assets hope of relief</h2><p>The US dollar may yet provide some light at the end of the tunnel for wary risk-asset traders this week.</p><p>The trade war has taken its toll on the greenback, and when measured against major trading partner currencies, its weakness is plain to see.</p><p>The US Dollar Index (DXY) fell to three-year lows last week and, at the time of writing, is challenging those lows once more.</p><blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Markets selling dollar even lower Monday. DXY fell through 100 and also the 2023 low over last few hours, now at lowest in 3 years <a href="https://t.co/MJ8wvvJuY2">pic.twitter.com/MJ8wvvJuY2</a></p>— David Ingles (@DavidInglesTV) <a href="https://twitter.com/DavidInglesTV/status/1911603515522420863?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">April 14, 2025</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script><p>While far from constant, Bitcoin’s relationship with dollar strength tends to show that gains occur after major DXY losses, albeit with a delay of several months.</p><p>To that end, popular analytics account Bitcoindata21 is eyeing a <a data-ct-non-breakable="null" href="https://x.com/bitcoindata21/status/1910618705806970971" rel="null" target="null" text="null" title="null">repeat of events</a> from 2017, resulting in BTC/USD all-time highs at the end of the year.</p><figure><img alt="Trade war vs record M2 money supply: 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week" src="https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2025-04/0196336d-a403-7f5c-9ef2-19ef15b3998a" title=""><figcaption style="text-align: center;"><p><em>US Dollar Index (DXY) fractal. Source: Bitcoindata21/X</em></p></figcaption></figure><p>Another chart uploaded to X over the weekend showed the relationship between DXY, Bitcoin and the S&P 500, providing ideal conditions for a long-term bottom in the latter.</p><p>The last time such a signal came was around one month before the pit of the Bitcoin bear market in late 2022.</p><p>“I got 99 problems but the DXY aint 1,” Bitcoindata21 summarized.</p><figure><img alt="Trade war vs record M2 money supply: 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week" src="https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2025-04/0196336d-18b0-777a-ae4d-c9688d9e85f9" title=""><figcaption style="text-align: center;"><p><em>BTC/USD vs. S&P 500 vs. DXY chart. Source: Bitcoindata21/X</em></p></figcaption></figure><h2>A bull market rebound in the making?</h2><p>On longer timeframes, an equally promising trend is playing out for Bitcoin bulls.</p><p><em><strong>Related: </strong></em><a data-ct-non-breakable="null" href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/bollinger-band-creator-bitcoin-forming-classic-floor-below-80k" rel="null" target="null" text="null" title="null"><em><strong>Bollinger Bands creator says Bitcoin forming ‘classic’ floor near $80K</strong></em></a></p><p>The global M2 money supply, with which Bitcoin price action is positively correlated, is seeking to break out beyond all-time highs.</p><p>“Global M2 has remained at an ATH for 3 days in a row,” analyst Colin Talks Crypto noted in a <a data-ct-non-breakable="null" href="https://x.com/ColinTCrypto/status/1911433354513178739" rel="null" target="null" text="null" title="null">dedicated X post</a> on the phenomenon this weekend. </p><blockquote>“This is a fantastic sign for what it signals will be coming into risk assets in ~108 days.”</blockquote><figure><img alt="Trade war vs record M2 money supply: 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week" src="https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2025-04/0196336e-bdee-7329-a3ac-4233611a8a3b" title=""><figcaption style="text-align: center;"><p><em>BTC/USD vs global M2 supply. Source: Colin Talks Crypto/X</em></p></figcaption></figure><p>The post refers to a chain reaction in which sharp moves in global M2 spark copycat behavior for Bitcoin once the latency period expires.</p><p>Before that, however, there may be a final opportunity to “buy the dip.”</p><p>“Global M2 (with a 108-day offset) doesn’t show a blast-off for another ~2 1/2 weeks, and actually shows a slow bleed into next week until around April 16th or 17th,” Colin Talks Crypto acknowledged.</p><p>Earlier this month, the analyst predicted <a data-ct-non-breakable="null" href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-71k-target-tariffs-deal-rare-us-business-outlook-slump" rel="null" target="null" text="null" title="null">a “big M2 influx” incoming</a>, with a corresponding BTC price rebound beginning in May.</p><p class="post-content__disclaimer" type="">This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.</p><template data-name="subscription_form" data-type="markets_outlook" label="Subscription Form: Markets Outlook"></template><p><br><br></p></p>
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https://cointelegraph.com/news/tariffs-v...er_inbound
<p style="float:right; margin:0 0 10px 15px; width:240px;"><img src="https://images.cointelegraph.com/images/840_aHR0cHM6Ly9zMy5jb2ludGVsZWdyYXBoLmNvbS91cGxvYWRzLzIwMjUtMDQvMDE5NjMzNjgtNzQyMy03MTcyLTljOTQtZGMwZTAzZWY4NGRk.jpg"></p><p><p style="float:right; margin:0 0 10px 15px; width:240px;"><img src="https://images.cointelegraph.com/images/840_aHR0cHM6Ly9zMy5jb2ludGVsZWdyYXBoLmNvbS91cGxvYWRzLzIwMjUtMDQvMDE5NjMzNjgtNzQyMy03MTcyLTljOTQtZGMwZTAzZWY4NGRk.jpg" alt="Trade war vs record M2 money supply: 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week"></p><p>Bitcoin (<a data-ct-non-breakable="null" href="https://cointelegraph.com/bitcoin-price" rel="null" target="null" text="null" title="null">BTC</a>) is holding down the fort as the US trade war rages on into the third week of April.<ul><li><p>BTC price action attempts to overcome a long-term resistance trend line without success as trade war concerns dictate traders’ expectations.</p></li><li><p>Tariffs are the key macroeconomic topic of the week as risk assets brace for potential surprise headlines.</p></li><li><p>Bitcoin ETFs lost almost $800 million in a week, while Strategy indicates it has purchased the dip.</p></li><li><p>Despite tariff pressures, the weakness of the US dollar could be a blessing in disguise for Bitcoin and risky assets.</p></li><li><p>Global M2 money supply is at an all-time high and rising; will Bitcoin follow history and replicate its past?</p></li></ul><h2>Bulls battle a key BTC price resistance line</h2><p>With traders on the lookout for tariff-related volatility this week, BTC price analysis is zooming out.</p><p>BTC/USD closed last week up 6.7%, data from <a data-ct-non-breakable="null" href="https://subscription.cointelegraph.com/?_gl=1*7499wx*_ga*MTQ0MzQ0NzI4Ny4xNzE2MzY1NTA0*_ga_53R24TEEB1*MTcxNjM2NTUwNC4xLjEuMTcxNjM2Njg2MC4wLjAuMA.." rel="null" target="null" text="null" title="null">Cointelegraph Markets Pro</a> and <a data-ct-non-breakable="null" href="https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/BTCUSD/?exchange=BITSTAMP" rel="null" target="null" text="null" title="null">TradingView</a> confirms.</p><figure><img alt="Trade war vs record M2 money supply: 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week" src="https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2025-04/0196336f-9edc-7ef7-8ae5-28a05210c303" title=""><figcaption style="text-align: center;"><p><em>BTC/USD 1-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView</em></p></figcaption></figure><p>Next, however, comes the real test, breaking beyond a downward-sloping trend line that has capped the upside for months.</p><blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr"><a href="https://twitter.com/search?q=%24BTC&src=ctag&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">$BTC</a> - <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Bitcoin?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#Bitcoin</a>: I’m watching this chart closely. We might be ready. <a href="https://t.co/Dtv1jkrzkP">pic.twitter.com/Dtv1jkrzkP</a></p>— Crypto Caesar (@CryptoCaesarTA) <a href="https://twitter.com/CryptoCaesarTA/status/1910996051185594845?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">April 12, 2025</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script><p>“Rejected at key resistance, following the trendline perfectly,” trader Bitbull wrote in his latest post on the topic on X. </p><blockquote>“If the breakdown continues, eyes on the $70K-$72K support zone for a possible bounce.”</blockquote><figure><img alt="Trade war vs record M2 money supply: 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week" src="https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2025-04/01963367-7d1a-7cdd-b827-3c84e4a1902c" title=""><figcaption style="text-align: center;"><p><em>BTC/USD 12-hour chart. Source: Bitbull/X</em></p></figcaption></figure><p>Fellow trader and analyst Rekt Capital is also eyeing the trend line as a breakout <a data-ct-non-breakable="null" href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-price-tags-86-k-as-trump-tariff-relief-boosts-breakout-odds" rel="null" target="null" text="null" title="null">proves hard to confirm</a>.</p><p>“Bitcoin has Daily Closed above the Downtrend. Thus, breakout confirmation is underway,” he <a data-ct-non-breakable="null" href="https://x.com/rektcapital/status/1911364496435576921" rel="null" target="null" text="null" title="null">told</a> X followers over the weekend.</p><blockquote>“However BTC has previously Daily Closed above the Downtrend but failed its retest (a few of the red circles). Retest needs to be successful and it is in progress.”</blockquote><figure><img alt="Trade war vs record M2 money supply: 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week" src="https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2025-04/01962f4f-0fc5-7c01-af29-11ac05364843" title=""><figcaption style="text-align: center;"><p><em>BTC/USD 1-day chart. Source: Rekt Capital/X</em></p></figcaption></figure><p>Popular trader AK47 on X posted separate upside and downside BTC price targets, depending on the outcome of the trend line retest.</p><p>“$BTC might push to $88K — but don’t get too comfy,” he <a data-ct-non-breakable="null" href="https://x.com/HolaItsAk47/status/1911397632443888089" rel="null" target="null" text="null" title="null">cautioned</a>.</p><blockquote>“Could be a fakeout, grabbing liquidity before dipping to $81K for that inverse head & shoulders setup. If that plays out, $95K–$100K isn’t far.”</blockquote><figure><img alt="Trade war vs record M2 money supply: 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week" src="https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2025-04/01963368-6d11-7373-8044-cd411b7844a3" title=""><figcaption style="text-align: center;"><p><em>BTC/USDT 4-hour chart. Source: AK47/X</em></p></figcaption></figure><h2>Tariff talk keeps markets on edge</h2><p>A quieter week for US macroeconomic data leaves initial jobless claims as the highlight while the ongoing trade war continues to dominate.</p><p>With China in focus, risk assets and crypto face flash volatility should more surprises involving trade tariffs surface.</p><p>The weekend saw snap relief in that respect as US President Donald Trump announced a pause on tariffs for <a data-ct-non-breakable="null" href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/trump-exempts-select-tech-products-tariffs-crypto-benefit" rel="null" target="null" text="null" title="null">key tech products</a>. As a result, Bitcoin climbed to 11-day highs above $86,000.</p><p><a data-ct-non-breakable="null" href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/commerce-secretary-lutnick-walks-back-tariff-relief-electronics" rel="null" target="null" text="null" title="null">Subsequent indications</a> that the measures would be temporary then put renewed pressure on stocks’ futures, while BTC/USD retreated to circle $84,000 at the time of writing.</p><p>“We think the ‘tariff exemptions’ announced this weekend were originally intended to be temporary,” trading resource The Kobeissi Letter wrote in part of an <a data-ct-non-breakable="null" href="https://x.com/KobeissiLetter/status/1911486088431944047" rel="null" target="null" text="null" title="null">X reaction</a>. </p><blockquote>“The goal was to bring treasury yields back down before resuming the trade war.”</blockquote><figure><img alt="Trade war vs record M2 money supply: 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week" src="https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2025-04/0196336a-11c9-70cf-8347-0592182e39a2" title=""><figcaption style="text-align: center;"><p><em>S&P 500 1-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView</em></p></figcaption></figure><p>Kobeissi suggested that markets had originally considered the move as a signal that the trade war might end completely, only to be disappointed a day later.</p><p>“Bonds will likely still rally along with stocks, but uncertainty has only grown. The bond market is king,” it added.</p><p>Continuing, trading firm Mosaic Asset agreed that bonds may have been crucial in altering policy trajectory last week.</p><p>“It’s the volatility in other areas of the markets like currencies and Treasury bonds that might have forced a quick pivot on trade and tariff policy,” it summarized in the latest edition of its regular newsletter, “<a data-ct-non-breakable="null" href="https://www.mosaicassetco.com/p/the-market-mosaic-41325" rel="null" target="null" text="null" title="null">The Market Mosaic</a>,” on April 13.</p><blockquote>“The uncertainty around tariffs has become a binary and unpredictable event for the stock market. Signs of tensions fuel further downside, while an easing of tensions sends stocks sharply in the other direction.”</blockquote><h2>Bitcoin ETF outflow “barely registers”</h2><p>A sign of how turbulent last week was came in the form of net flows from the US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs).</p><p>In one of the worst weeks ever for the ETF products since their debut in early 2024, total outflows <a data-ct-non-breakable="null" href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/spot-bitcoin-etfs-see-772-m-outflow-as-investors-prepare-for-tariff-driven-inflation" rel="null" target="null" text="null" title="null">passed $750 million</a>.</p><p>For network economist Timothy Peterson, however, there is little to worry about.</p><p>Zooming out, he noted that even a nine-figure drawdown such as this makes hardly any difference to the overall investment pool that the ETFs have created in little more than a year.</p><p>“Last week, US Bitcoin ETFs had their 5th worst week ever (in terms of outflows). Over $700 million. Yet it barely registers as a blip on the chart,” he <a data-ct-non-breakable="null" href="https://x.com/nsquaredvalue/status/1911101099177574879" rel="null" target="null" text="null" title="null">told</a> X followers. </p><blockquote>“That's how big Bitcoin has become. That's how sticky these investments are.”</blockquote><figure><img alt="Trade war vs record M2 money supply: 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week" src="https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2025-04/0196336a-e22f-7775-a192-ba71ba87be6f" title=""><figcaption style="text-align: center;"><p><em>US spot Bitcoin ETF balances. Source: Timothy Peterson/X</em></p></figcaption></figure><p>Among major investors seeking to “<a data-ct-non-breakable="null" href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/saylor-strategy-buying-dip-amid-macroeconomic-turmoil" rel="null" target="null" text="null" title="null">buy the dip</a>,” meanwhile, was business intelligence firm Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy), whose co-founder Michael Saylor hinted that it was upping its BTC exposure this weekend.</p><p>“No Tariffs on Orange Dots,” he <a data-ct-non-breakable="null" href="https://x.com/saylor/status/1911408383808217104" rel="null" target="null" text="null" title="null">wrote</a> in an X post alongside a chart of Strategy’s acquisitions. </p><figure><img alt="Trade war vs record M2 money supply: 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week" src="https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2025-04/0196336b-7800-7cef-bec5-6b6ebc2be2b9" title=""><figcaption style="text-align: center;"><p><em>Strategy Bitcoin holdings data. Source: Michael Saylor</em></p></figcaption></figure><p>Whether Bitcoin will emerge as an attractive proposition for the institutional investor cohort while trade war uncertainty continues is dubious.</p><p>A survey by Bank of America in late March showed that respondents overwhelmingly favored gold as a volatility hedge, with 58% choosing it.</p><p>“This compares to just 9% for 30-year Treasury Bonds and 3% for Bitcoin,” Kobeissi wrote while <a data-ct-non-breakable="null" href="https://x.com/KobeissiLetter/status/1906132766313603223" rel="null" target="null" text="null" title="null">reporting</a> on the findings. </p><blockquote>“Throw in the US deficit spending crisis and gold quickly becomes the only global safe haven asset.”</blockquote><figure><img alt="Trade war vs record M2 money supply: 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week" src="https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2025-04/0196336c-00da-7ade-ba00-717185b64ccf" title=""><figcaption style="text-align: center;"><p><em>BoA survey results. Source: The Kobeissi Letter/X</em></p></figcaption></figure><h2>Dollar dive gives risk assets hope of relief</h2><p>The US dollar may yet provide some light at the end of the tunnel for wary risk-asset traders this week.</p><p>The trade war has taken its toll on the greenback, and when measured against major trading partner currencies, its weakness is plain to see.</p><p>The US Dollar Index (DXY) fell to three-year lows last week and, at the time of writing, is challenging those lows once more.</p><blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Markets selling dollar even lower Monday. DXY fell through 100 and also the 2023 low over last few hours, now at lowest in 3 years <a href="https://t.co/MJ8wvvJuY2">pic.twitter.com/MJ8wvvJuY2</a></p>— David Ingles (@DavidInglesTV) <a href="https://twitter.com/DavidInglesTV/status/1911603515522420863?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">April 14, 2025</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script><p>While far from constant, Bitcoin’s relationship with dollar strength tends to show that gains occur after major DXY losses, albeit with a delay of several months.</p><p>To that end, popular analytics account Bitcoindata21 is eyeing a <a data-ct-non-breakable="null" href="https://x.com/bitcoindata21/status/1910618705806970971" rel="null" target="null" text="null" title="null">repeat of events</a> from 2017, resulting in BTC/USD all-time highs at the end of the year.</p><figure><img alt="Trade war vs record M2 money supply: 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week" src="https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2025-04/0196336d-a403-7f5c-9ef2-19ef15b3998a" title=""><figcaption style="text-align: center;"><p><em>US Dollar Index (DXY) fractal. Source: Bitcoindata21/X</em></p></figcaption></figure><p>Another chart uploaded to X over the weekend showed the relationship between DXY, Bitcoin and the S&P 500, providing ideal conditions for a long-term bottom in the latter.</p><p>The last time such a signal came was around one month before the pit of the Bitcoin bear market in late 2022.</p><p>“I got 99 problems but the DXY aint 1,” Bitcoindata21 summarized.</p><figure><img alt="Trade war vs record M2 money supply: 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week" src="https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2025-04/0196336d-18b0-777a-ae4d-c9688d9e85f9" title=""><figcaption style="text-align: center;"><p><em>BTC/USD vs. S&P 500 vs. DXY chart. Source: Bitcoindata21/X</em></p></figcaption></figure><h2>A bull market rebound in the making?</h2><p>On longer timeframes, an equally promising trend is playing out for Bitcoin bulls.</p><p><em><strong>Related: </strong></em><a data-ct-non-breakable="null" href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/bollinger-band-creator-bitcoin-forming-classic-floor-below-80k" rel="null" target="null" text="null" title="null"><em><strong>Bollinger Bands creator says Bitcoin forming ‘classic’ floor near $80K</strong></em></a></p><p>The global M2 money supply, with which Bitcoin price action is positively correlated, is seeking to break out beyond all-time highs.</p><p>“Global M2 has remained at an ATH for 3 days in a row,” analyst Colin Talks Crypto noted in a <a data-ct-non-breakable="null" href="https://x.com/ColinTCrypto/status/1911433354513178739" rel="null" target="null" text="null" title="null">dedicated X post</a> on the phenomenon this weekend. </p><blockquote>“This is a fantastic sign for what it signals will be coming into risk assets in ~108 days.”</blockquote><figure><img alt="Trade war vs record M2 money supply: 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week" src="https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2025-04/0196336e-bdee-7329-a3ac-4233611a8a3b" title=""><figcaption style="text-align: center;"><p><em>BTC/USD vs global M2 supply. Source: Colin Talks Crypto/X</em></p></figcaption></figure><p>The post refers to a chain reaction in which sharp moves in global M2 spark copycat behavior for Bitcoin once the latency period expires.</p><p>Before that, however, there may be a final opportunity to “buy the dip.”</p><p>“Global M2 (with a 108-day offset) doesn’t show a blast-off for another ~2 1/2 weeks, and actually shows a slow bleed into next week until around April 16th or 17th,” Colin Talks Crypto acknowledged.</p><p>Earlier this month, the analyst predicted <a data-ct-non-breakable="null" href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-71k-target-tariffs-deal-rare-us-business-outlook-slump" rel="null" target="null" text="null" title="null">a “big M2 influx” incoming</a>, with a corresponding BTC price rebound beginning in May.</p><p class="post-content__disclaimer" type="">This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.</p><template data-name="subscription_form" data-type="markets_outlook" label="Subscription Form: Markets Outlook"></template><p><br><br></p></p>
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